TY - JOUR

T1 - Clinical Predictors of Device-Detected Atrial Fibrillation During 2.5 Years After Cardiac Surgery

T2 - Prospective RACE V Cohort

AU - Gilbers, Martijn D.

AU - Kawczynski, Michal J.

AU - Bidar, Elham

AU - Maesen, Bart

AU - Isaacs, Aaron

AU - Winters, Joris

AU - Linz, Dominik

AU - Rienstra, Michiel

AU - van Gelder, Isabelle

AU - Maessen, Jos G.

AU - Schotten, Ulrich

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Authors

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a frequent complication after cardiac surgery that is associated with late atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrences (late-POAF) and increased morbidity and long-term mortality. Objectives: This study sought to determine device-detected POAF incidence and to identify clinical variables associated with POAF, both in patients with and without preoperative AF history. Methods: A total of 133 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery were prospectively enrolled and continuously monitored with an implantable loop recorder for 2.5 years after surgery. Preoperative transthoracic echocardiography, 12-lead electrocardiogram, blood biomarkers, and clinical data were analyzed to develop prediction models for early- and late-POAF. Results: In patients without preoperative AF history, early-POAF within the first 90 postoperative days occurred in 41 (47.1%) of 87 patients. Late-POAF after the first 90 postoperative days occurred in 22 (25%) of 87 patients, and 20 of these patients also had early-POAF during the first 90 days (20 of 22 [91%]). Increased right atrial minimum volume indexed for body surface area (RAVImin) and early-POAF were independently associated with late-POAF. A prediction model for late-POAF, which included RAVImin >11 mL/m2, age >65 years, and early-POAF, achieved an area under the curve of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72-0.92). For patients with preoperative AF-history, late-POAF recurrences were frequent (22 of 33 [67%]). Increased RAVImin was independently associated with a higher incidence of late-POAF. Conclusions: In patients with and without AF history, late-POAF recurrences are frequent, including in patients undergoing surgical AF ablation. In patients with no history of AF, late-POAF might be predicted with excellent accuracy by using a combination of preoperative variables. In patients with a history of AF, signs of advanced AF substrate (eg, increased right atrial volumes) were associated with long-term AF recurrences. [Reappraisal of Atrial Fibrillation: Interaction Between Hypercoagulability, Electrical Remodeling, and Vascular Destabilisation in the Progression of AF; NCT03124576]

AB - Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a frequent complication after cardiac surgery that is associated with late atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrences (late-POAF) and increased morbidity and long-term mortality. Objectives: This study sought to determine device-detected POAF incidence and to identify clinical variables associated with POAF, both in patients with and without preoperative AF history. Methods: A total of 133 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery were prospectively enrolled and continuously monitored with an implantable loop recorder for 2.5 years after surgery. Preoperative transthoracic echocardiography, 12-lead electrocardiogram, blood biomarkers, and clinical data were analyzed to develop prediction models for early- and late-POAF. Results: In patients without preoperative AF history, early-POAF within the first 90 postoperative days occurred in 41 (47.1%) of 87 patients. Late-POAF after the first 90 postoperative days occurred in 22 (25%) of 87 patients, and 20 of these patients also had early-POAF during the first 90 days (20 of 22 [91%]). Increased right atrial minimum volume indexed for body surface area (RAVImin) and early-POAF were independently associated with late-POAF. A prediction model for late-POAF, which included RAVImin >11 mL/m2, age >65 years, and early-POAF, achieved an area under the curve of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72-0.92). For patients with preoperative AF-history, late-POAF recurrences were frequent (22 of 33 [67%]). Increased RAVImin was independently associated with a higher incidence of late-POAF. Conclusions: In patients with and without AF history, late-POAF recurrences are frequent, including in patients undergoing surgical AF ablation. In patients with no history of AF, late-POAF might be predicted with excellent accuracy by using a combination of preoperative variables. In patients with a history of AF, signs of advanced AF substrate (eg, increased right atrial volumes) were associated with long-term AF recurrences. [Reappraisal of Atrial Fibrillation: Interaction Between Hypercoagulability, Electrical Remodeling, and Vascular Destabilisation in the Progression of AF; NCT03124576]

KW - cardiac surgery

KW - postoperative atrial fibrillation

KW - predictive models

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85189030648&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.jacep.2024.01.013

DO - 10.1016/j.jacep.2024.01.013

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 38483418

AN - SCOPUS:85189030648

JO - JACC: Clinical Electrophysiology

JF - JACC: Clinical Electrophysiology

SN - 2405-5018

ER -