Aims: Left ventricular (LV) systolic deformation is altered early in the ventricular disease process despite normal LV ejection fraction (LVEF). These alterations seem to be characterized by decreased global longitudinal strain (GLS) and augmented global circumferential strain (GCS). This study aimed to investigate the link between myocardial deformation phenotyping using longitudinal and circumferential strain and risk of incident heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular death (CD). Methods and results: The study sample was based on the prospective cohort study the 5th Copenhagen City Heart Study (2011-15). All participants were examined with echocardiography following a pre-defined protocol. A total of 2874 participants were included. Mean age was 53±18 years and 60% were female. During a median follow-up of 3.5 years, a total of 73 developed HF/CD. A U-shaped relationship between GCS and HF/CD was observed. LVEF significantly modified the association between GCS and HF/CD (P for interaction <0.001). The optimal transition point for the effect modification was LVEF < 50%. In multivariable Cox regressions, increasing GCS was significantly associated with HF/CD in participants with LVEF ≥ 50% (hazard ratio [HR]=1.12 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02; 1.23] per 1% increase), while decreasing GCS was associated with a higher risk of HF/CD in individuals with LVEF < 50% [HR=1.18 (95% CI: 1.05; 1.31) per 1% decrease]. Conclusions: The prognostic utility of GCS is modified by LVEF. In participants with normal LVEF, higher GCS was associated with increased risk of HF/CD, while the opposite was observed in participants with abnormal LVEF. This observation adds important information to our understanding of the pathophysiological evolution of myocardial deformation in cardiac disease progression.