High-resolution data are necessary to understand the effects of climate on plant population dynamics of a forest herb

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Climate is assumed to strongly influence species distribution and abundance. Although the performance of many organisms is influenced by the climate in their immediate proximity, the climate data used to model their distributions often have a coarse spatial resolution. This is problematic because the local climate experienced by individuals might deviate substantially from the regional average. This problem is likely to be particularly important for sessile organisms like plants and in environments where small-scale variation in climate is large. To quantify the effect of local temperature on vital rates and population growth rates, we used temperature values measured at the local scale (in situ logger measures) and integral projection models with demographic data from 37 populations of the forest herb Lathyrus vernus across a wide latitudinal gradient in Sweden. To assess how the spatial resolution of temperature data influences assessments of climate effects, we compared effects from models using local data with models using regionally aggregated temperature data at several spatial resolutions (≥1 km). Using local temperature data, we found that spring frost reduced the asymptotic population growth rate in the first of two annual transitions and influenced survival in both transitions. Only one of the four regional estimates showed a similar negative effect of spring frost on population growth rate. Our results for a perennial forest herb show that analyses using regionally aggregated data often fail to identify the effects of climate on population dynamics. This emphasizes the importance of using organism-relevant estimates of climate when examining effects on individual performance and population dynamics, as well as when modeling species distributions. For sessile organisms that experience the environment over small spatial scales, this will require climate data at high spatial resolutions.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummere4191
TidsskriftEcology
Vol/bind105
Udgave nummer1
ISSN0012-9658
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2024
Eksternt udgivetJa

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
We thank Ebba Tamm and Hendrik de Buhr for valuable help with planning and conducting fieldwork. We also thank Dirk Karger for his help retrieving the CHELSA climate data. This project was funded by a grant from the Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences, and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) (to Johan Ehrlén and Johan P. Dahlgren) and was supported by the Bolin Centre for Climate Research (to Kristoffer Hylander).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors. Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.

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