Bikeability and the induced demand for cycling
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Bikeability and the induced demand for cycling. / Fosgerau, Mogens; Łukawska, Mirosława; Paulsen, Mads; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær.
I: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Bind 120, Nr. 16, 18.04.2023, s. e2220515120.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Bikeability and the induced demand for cycling
AU - Fosgerau, Mogens
AU - Łukawska, Mirosława
AU - Paulsen, Mads
AU - Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær
PY - 2023/4/18
Y1 - 2023/4/18
N2 - To what extent is the volume of urban bicycle traffic affected by the provision of bicycle infrastructure? In this study, we exploit a large dataset of GPS trajectories of bicycle trips in combination with a fine-grained representation of the Copenhagen bicycle-relevant network. We apply a model for bicyclists' choice of route from origin to destination that takes the complete network into account. This enables us to determine bicyclists' preferences for a range of infrastructure and land-use types. We use the estimated preferences to compute a generalized cost of bicycle travel, which we correlate with the number of bicycle trips across a large number of origin-destination pairs. Simulations suggest that the extensive Copenhagen bicycle lane network has caused the number of bicycle trips and the bicycle kilometers traveled to increase by 60% and 90%, respectively, compared with a counterfactual without the bicycle lane network. This translates into an annual benefit of €0.4M per km of bicycle lane owing to changes in generalized travel cost, health, and accidents. Our results thus strongly support the provision of bicycle infrastructure.
AB - To what extent is the volume of urban bicycle traffic affected by the provision of bicycle infrastructure? In this study, we exploit a large dataset of GPS trajectories of bicycle trips in combination with a fine-grained representation of the Copenhagen bicycle-relevant network. We apply a model for bicyclists' choice of route from origin to destination that takes the complete network into account. This enables us to determine bicyclists' preferences for a range of infrastructure and land-use types. We use the estimated preferences to compute a generalized cost of bicycle travel, which we correlate with the number of bicycle trips across a large number of origin-destination pairs. Simulations suggest that the extensive Copenhagen bicycle lane network has caused the number of bicycle trips and the bicycle kilometers traveled to increase by 60% and 90%, respectively, compared with a counterfactual without the bicycle lane network. This translates into an annual benefit of €0.4M per km of bicycle lane owing to changes in generalized travel cost, health, and accidents. Our results thus strongly support the provision of bicycle infrastructure.
U2 - 10.1073/pnas.2220515120
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2220515120
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 37040413
VL - 120
SP - e2220515120
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
SN - 0027-8424
IS - 16
ER -
ID: 342347933