OBJECTIVE: LDL cholesterol (LDLc)-lowering drugs modestly increase body weight and type 2 diabetes risk, but the extent to which the diabetogenic effect of lowering LDLc is mediated through increased BMI is unknown.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted summary-level univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses in 921,908 participants to investigate the effect of lowering LDLc on type 2 diabetes risk and the proportion of this effect mediated through BMI. We used data from 92,532 participants from 14 observational studies to replicate findings in individual-level MR analyses.

RESULTS: A 1-SD decrease in genetically predicted LDLc was associated with increased type 2 diabetes odds (odds ratio [OR] 1.12 [95% CI 1.01, 1.24]) and BMI (β = 0.07 SD units [95% CI 0.02, 0.12]) in univariable MR analyses. The multivariable MR analysis showed evidence of an indirect effect of lowering LDLc on type 2 diabetes through BMI (OR 1.04 [95% CI 1.01, 1.08]) with a proportion mediated of 38% of the total effect (P = 0.03). Total and indirect effect estimates were similar across a number of sensitivity analyses. Individual-level MR analyses confirmed the indirect effect of lowering LDLc on type 2 diabetes through BMI with an estimated proportion mediated of 8% (P = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the diabetogenic effect attributed to lowering LDLc is partially mediated through increased BMI. Our results could help advance understanding of adipose tissue and lipids in type 2 diabetes pathophysiology and inform strategies to reduce diabetes risk among individuals taking LDLc-lowering medications.